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Who is This Event For?

This workshop is for scholars seeking to expand their knowledge and skills for studying socio-political risks (SPR) in emerging markets. It is also for those who are planning or currently working on a project on SPR or the business environment in emerging markets and are seeking a forum where they can brainstorm and discuss research design ideas with scholars from different disciplines.

The workshop will:

  1. showcase state-of-the-art interdisciplinary and discipline-specific methodologies for studying PR of in emerging markets. It is designed as a cross-disciplinary discussion of novel methodological approaches relevant for international business and management.
  2. offer the participants an opportunity to brainstorm and rough draft a research strategy/research design applying one/some of the methodologies, for a planned or current project. The workshop has built-in discussion time, and we intend for the participants to leave with an actionable research design and a comprehensive set of resources for the empirical study of SPR and emerging markets, including a network of scholars willing to provide feedback.

The workshop will scrutinize novel methodological approaches to study socio-political risks by assessing their suitability in different contexts and provide hands on opportunities for participants to explore methods appropriate for their projects. Main contributions include: (1) the systematic examination of pros and cons of a range of novel qualitative and quantitative methodologies in the context of SPR research; (2) the illustration of several methods; and (3) the identification of the most appropriate analytical tools to study different types of socio-political risks in diverse contexts.

How is This Event Structured?

Part 1: An overview, illustration, and discussion of different methodological approaches and their suitability for studying socio-political risks in different national and regional contexts.

  1. Brief overview of recent theoretical and methodological developments in socio-political risk scholarship in International Business and Political Science
  2. Short presentations of three papers (descriptions below), each focusing on specific aspects of socio-political risks as well as qualitative and quantitative approaches to studying them. This part will provide demonstrations of qualitative and quantitative approaches to study political risks in international business and interdisciplinary research
  3. Q&A and discussion on details of the techniques and their potential use to explore settings and topics other than those presented in the illustration papers.

Part 2: Individual and interactive group activities for workshop attendees on using methodologies in their research projects.

  1. A think/brainstorm session: participants consider how they might incorporate the methods presented in a planned or ongoing project; participants work on their own or with their co-authors and prepare to discuss their ideas in small groups. [20 minutes]
  2. Small group (3-4 participants) discussion and feedback session: participants discuss their research design ideas, offering and receiving feedback. The workshop attendees will leave the workshop with a draft research design for their project or a revised/refined research design. Each group’s discussion will be moderated by at least one of the workshop’s presenters or discussants; groups will rotate every 15 minutes. [1 hour]

Part 3: Large group discussion of resources and practical aspects of implementing the methods discussed.

  1. Discussion of practical details of implementing the research methods for studying political risk, especially as applicable to the research designs developed by the participants. The discussion will cover data sources, funding sources, on-the-ground support and challenges, tool development and testing etc., and will leverage the expertise of both panelists and discussants, on the one hand, and workshop participants, on the other. [25 minutes]
  2. Closing discussion, inviting the participants’ feedback on the workshop and ideas for leveraging the knowledge and resources of the workshop. [15 minutes]

How Can I Register to Participate?

Those interested in taking part ini this event must complete our online registration form by June 25, 2020. Due to the hands-on nature of the activities and demonstrations, this workshop has a limited capacity. Registrants will be processed on a first-come-first-served basis.

Please note: Participants will also need to be registered for the AIB 2020 Annual Meeting with an AIB membership valid through July 9, 2020 in order to take part in this workshop.

What Materials Will This Workshop Cover?

PAPER 1: Interdisciplinary methodological framework for socio-political risk analysis: mixed-methods research of businesses, public, and local governments in emerging markets

Authors: Tatiana Vashchilko (presenter), Andreea Mihalache—O’Keef, Ekrem Karakoc, Anne Kleffner, and Martin Halek

Abstract: This paper introduces an interdisciplinary four-pronged, mixed-methods tool for multi-stakeholder evaluations of socio-political risk. The tool includes: (1) semi-structured interviews with local and foreign companies; (2) semi-structured interviews with public officials; (3) surveys of companies; and (4) public surveys. The simultaneous deployment of location-matched research tools (e.g., surveys and interviews) targeting businesses, policymakers, and the public in twelve cities across Turkey and Tunisia, captures the reactions to socio-political risk and the interactions of societal, political, and economic actors. This new methodology provides theoretically grounded and sufficiently nuanced data at the city level, making it possible to connect foreign investor, local firm and local government behaviours to public attitudes toward businesses. It also allows for identifying main types of socio-political risks in emerging countries and comparing risk management strategies of local and foreign companies, their effectiveness, public attitudes toward them, and local government perspectives on business. Therefore, this new interdisciplinary tool can be applied to address multiple research questions within and across International Relations, Comparative Politics, International Business, and Risk Management.

PAPER 2: Reality or perception? Regulatory contingencies and the political tie intensity—performance link

Authors: George O. White III (presenter), Tazeeb S. Rajwani, Thomas A. Hemphill, Jean J. Boddewyn, & Thomas C. Lawton

Abstract: How does the intensification of political ties with government actors in a host country affect foreign subsidiary performance? We apply the attention-based view of the firm and resource dependence theory in analyzing 159 foreign subsidiaries operating in the Philippines. Our theory and results show that political tie intensity is positively related to foreign subsidiary performance. However, we find that this positive relationship only holds up to an inflection point and then declines if political ties continue to intensify beyond this point particularly when foreign subsidiaries consider themselves excessively regulated. Moreover, these results substantially vary between objective and perceptual performance indicators, meaning that these results are inconclusive when considering a manager’s (perceived) satisfaction with performance. In other words, there is a potential “halo effect” associated with the intensification of political ties with government actors by executives that do not always hold true when considering excessive regulation and objective performance outcomes. Implications for managers and avenues for future research are discussed.

PAPER 3: Modeling a country’s political environment using dynamic factor analysis

Authors: Tatiana Vashchilko, James Agarwal (presenter), & Oleksiy Osiyevskyy

Abstract: Political uncertainty generates additional costs for international business (IB) resulting in less optimal decision-making. Recent political risk and IB scholarship established that “accurate” knowledge of a country’s political environment decreases political uncertainty, and thereby improves investment outcomes. However, attaining greater accuracy about the potential of a country’s political environment to generate business risk remains a challenge. Our research fills this gap in the following ways. (1) re-directing scholarly attention from the questions of what and why to how political uncertainty can be assessed; (2) offering a process-based conceptual framework explaining the dynamic structure of a country’s political environment; and (3) proposing a new methodological framework with a novel application of dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to estimate a dynamic structure of a country’s political environment. We use ICRG political risk index monthly data for Brazil for the period 1984-2018 to demonstrate the application of our frameworks by identifying the underlying latent sources of political risks within its changing political environment.

DISCUSSANTS

Who is This Event For?

This workshop is for scholars seeking to expand their knowledge and skills for studying socio-political risks (SPR) in emerging markets. It is also for those who are planning or currently working on a project on SPR or the business environment in emerging markets and are seeking a forum where they can brainstorm and discuss research design ideas with scholars from different disciplines.

The workshop will:

  1. showcase state-of-the-art interdisciplinary and discipline-specific methodologies for studying PR of in emerging markets. It is designed as a cross-disciplinary discussion of novel methodological approaches relevant for international business and management.
  2. offer the participants an opportunity to brainstorm and rough draft a research strategy/research design applying one/some of the methodologies, for a planned or current project. The workshop has built-in discussion time, and we intend for the participants to leave with an actionable research design and a comprehensive set of resources for the empirical study of SPR and emerging markets, including a network of scholars willing to provide feedback.

The workshop will scrutinize novel methodological approaches to study socio-political risks by assessing their suitability in different contexts and provide hands on opportunities for participants to explore methods appropriate for their projects. Main contributions include: (1) the systematic examination of pros and cons of a range of novel qualitative and quantitative methodologies in the context of SPR research; (2) the illustration of several methods; and (3) the identification of the most appropriate analytical tools to study different types of socio-political risks in diverse contexts.

How is This Event Structured?

Part 1: An overview, illustration, and discussion of different methodological approaches and their suitability for studying socio-political risks in different national and regional contexts.

  1. Brief overview of recent theoretical and methodological developments in socio-political risk scholarship in International Business and Political Science
  2. Short presentations of three papers (descriptions below), each focusing on specific aspects of socio-political risks as well as qualitative and quantitative approaches to studying them. This part will provide demonstrations of qualitative and quantitative approaches to study political risks in international business and interdisciplinary research
  3. Q&A and discussion on details of the techniques and their potential use to explore settings and topics other than those presented in the illustration papers.

Part 2: Individual and interactive group activities for workshop attendees on using methodologies in their research projects.

  1. A think/brainstorm session: participants consider how they might incorporate the methods presented in a planned or ongoing project; participants work on their own or with their co-authors and prepare to discuss their ideas in small groups. [20 minutes]
  2. Small group (3-4 participants) discussion and feedback session: participants discuss their research design ideas, offering and receiving feedback. The workshop attendees will leave the workshop with a draft research design for their project or a revised/refined research design. Each group’s discussion will be moderated by at least one of the workshop’s presenters or discussants; groups will rotate every 15 minutes. [1 hour]

Part 3: Large group discussion of resources and practical aspects of implementing the methods discussed.

  1. Discussion of practical details of implementing the research methods for studying political risk, especially as applicable to the research designs developed by the participants. The discussion will cover data sources, funding sources, on-the-ground support and challenges, tool development and testing etc., and will leverage the expertise of both panelists and discussants, on the one hand, and workshop participants, on the other. [25 minutes]
  2. Closing discussion, inviting the participants’ feedback on the workshop and ideas for leveraging the knowledge and resources of the workshop. [15 minutes]

How Can I Register to Participate?

Those interested in taking part ini this event must complete our online registration form by June 25, 2020. Due to the hands-on nature of the activities and demonstrations, this workshop has a limited capacity. Registrants will be processed on a first-come-first-served basis.

Please note: Participants will also need to be registered for the AIB 2020 Annual Meeting with an AIB membership valid through July 9, 2020 in order to take part in this workshop.

What Materials Will This Workshop Cover?

PAPER 1: Interdisciplinary methodological framework for socio-political risk analysis: mixed-methods research of businesses, public, and local governments in emerging markets

Authors: Tatiana Vashchilko (presenter), Andreea Mihalache—O’Keef, Ekrem Karakoc, Anne Kleffner, and Martin Halek

Abstract: This paper introduces an interdisciplinary four-pronged, mixed-methods tool for multi-stakeholder evaluations of socio-political risk. The tool includes: (1) semi-structured interviews with local and foreign companies; (2) semi-structured interviews with public officials; (3) surveys of companies; and (4) public surveys. The simultaneous deployment of location-matched research tools (e.g., surveys and interviews) targeting businesses, policymakers, and the public in twelve cities across Turkey and Tunisia, captures the reactions to socio-political risk and the interactions of societal, political, and economic actors. This new methodology provides theoretically grounded and sufficiently nuanced data at the city level, making it possible to connect foreign investor, local firm and local government behaviours to public attitudes toward businesses. It also allows for identifying main types of socio-political risks in emerging countries and comparing risk management strategies of local and foreign companies, their effectiveness, public attitudes toward them, and local government perspectives on business. Therefore, this new interdisciplinary tool can be applied to address multiple research questions within and across International Relations, Comparative Politics, International Business, and Risk Management.

PAPER 2: Reality or perception? Regulatory contingencies and the political tie intensity—performance link

Authors: George O. White III (presenter), Tazeeb S. Rajwani, Thomas A. Hemphill, Jean J. Boddewyn, & Thomas C. Lawton

Abstract: How does the intensification of political ties with government actors in a host country affect foreign subsidiary performance? We apply the attention-based view of the firm and resource dependence theory in analyzing 159 foreign subsidiaries operating in the Philippines. Our theory and results show that political tie intensity is positively related to foreign subsidiary performance. However, we find that this positive relationship only holds up to an inflection point and then declines if political ties continue to intensify beyond this point particularly when foreign subsidiaries consider themselves excessively regulated. Moreover, these results substantially vary between objective and perceptual performance indicators, meaning that these results are inconclusive when considering a manager’s (perceived) satisfaction with performance. In other words, there is a potential “halo effect” associated with the intensification of political ties with government actors by executives that do not always hold true when considering excessive regulation and objective performance outcomes. Implications for managers and avenues for future research are discussed.

PAPER 3: Modeling a country’s political environment using dynamic factor analysis

Authors: Tatiana Vashchilko, James Agarwal (presenter), & Oleksiy Osiyevskyy

Abstract: Political uncertainty generates additional costs for international business (IB) resulting in less optimal decision-making. Recent political risk and IB scholarship established that “accurate” knowledge of a country’s political environment decreases political uncertainty, and thereby improves investment outcomes. However, attaining greater accuracy about the potential of a country’s political environment to generate business risk remains a challenge. Our research fills this gap in the following ways. (1) re-directing scholarly attention from the questions of what and why to how political uncertainty can be assessed; (2) offering a process-based conceptual framework explaining the dynamic structure of a country’s political environment; and (3) proposing a new methodological framework with a novel application of dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to estimate a dynamic structure of a country’s political environment. We use ICRG political risk index monthly data for Brazil for the period 1984-2018 to demonstrate the application of our frameworks by identifying the underlying latent sources of political risks within its changing political environment.

DISCUSSANTS